Our Investment Institute, in partnership with our Solutions Team, has published the annual edition of its 10-year expected returns, titled ‘Adapting to Ruptures’.
We are living through a regime of ruptures: geopolitical, technological and energy-related, and adaptation will define the next five years. Our macro scenarios reflect this continuously evolving backdrop with revised growth and inflation paths. We have also added gold to our assumptions set, broadened our analysis across time horizons, moved to a more targeted currency-based assessment, and refined our private asset modelling.
Key convictions include
- Rupture is no longer a shock to the system — it is the system.
- Higher structural deficits may spur home bias.
- Balance higher-returning assets with those that can add resilience.
- Private and alternative assets require more selectivity.
- Strategic asset allocation benefits from gold and private assets.
