In an article published on 9 January in Les Echos, Vincent Mortier explains why markets remain resilient despite geopolitical tensions, as well as the reasons behind the decline of the dollar and the performance of gold, which has once again become a major focus for investors.
Key points
- Markets at record levels despite numerous risks. The absence of recession, controlled inflation and rising profits explain the support for prices.
- Less reaction to geopolitical shocks: investors are now taking the time to assess the real impact of shocks, with some sectors even benefiting from unexpected announcements.
- A dollar in decline over the long term: the US budget deficit remains high and the supply of dollars abundant, but demand is not infinite.
- Risks to watch: AI bubble, potential overcapacity in data centres, and risks related to central bank independence.
- Implications for management: increased diversification and tactical hedging of US positions to reconcile long-term convictions and protection.
